First, Stocks. Then the Economy

On average, the stock markets peak seven months prior to the beginning of a recession. They also bottom six months into a recession. In, other words, stock markets usually hit bottom and begin to rebound long before the economy goes from recession to expansion. So, don’t get too excited if the stock market looks like its going up. Because if we’re still in a recession when the stock market bottoms, you and all your friends are still at high risk of losing your your jobs.

First, Recession. Then “Recession”
On average, the official “recession” announcement occurs around seven months after the recession actually begins. The end of the recession announcement tends to come 15 months after it's over. These announcements come from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Literally, they’ll come out and say that a recession began a few months ago. Thanks for nothing.

A "Recession" is Not a ""Recession""
Also, contrary to popular belief, the NBER measure of recession is not simply two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (gross domestic product) growth. When making its determination, the NBER considers all of the economic indicators in a much more sophisticated manner unclear to me. Based on the opinions of economists I follow, the U.S. recession began in December 2007 or January 2008.

I wouldn't put too much weight into these stats when making investment decisions. Just remember that stocks reflect expectations. Unfortunately, this concept becomes clear only in retrospect.