Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Change is Coming. For Now, Jobs are Going.

Last night, the American people made history by voting Barack Obama into the White House. Someday, I'm going to tell my kids and grand-kids that President Obama helped make the United States a better country. I believe social issues will improve and economic fundamentals will be stronger...in the long run.

But if you woke up this morning thinking everything was now okay, you're fooling yourself. The economy is gonna get a lot worse before it gets better. And even when it starts to get better, it'll be a very long time before it get's as good as it has been. The good ol' days of easy money for buying your house, leasing your car, and financing that college education are gone.

One Month Review
I started this blog a month ago after friends told me coworkers were getting laid off for no good reason. At the time, layoffs were exacerbated by the frozen credit market which kept everyone from completing any financial transaction, including buying stuff, selling stuff, and paying employees.

LIBOR rates have sinced improved and banks are now more capable of lending money. But like I said in my first posting, once credit markets improve we will then have to worry about the economy, which is still deteriorating.

More Job Cuts
Today, a private survey conducted by ADP showed 157,000 jobs were cut in October, which was worse than the 100,000 economists were expecting. Again, the expectation was bad, but the reality is worse.

Friday November 7, 8:30 AM EST

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release their October jobs numbers on Friday. Their measurement differs from ADP's survey, but the difference is outside the scope of our discussion. Economists expect October non-farm payrolls to fall 200,000 and unemployment to rise to 6.3%. Could this prove to be optimistic? FYI, September non-farm payrolls fell 159,000 and unemployment was 6.1%.

My World
Job cuts continue to roll out in the financial services industry. This week, Morgan Stanley supposedly said they would cut another 15% and cancel all of their holiday parties. Goldman Sachs is said to be cutting 10% as well. Citigroup is passing out another 9,100 pink slips this week, on top of the 12,900 it already handed out this year. Bank of America said they'd cut around 500 jobs to eliminate redundancies from their Merrill Lynch acquisition.

Me? I make way less money at Forbes than I would if I were working at a financial services firm. But for now, I can say I have better job security. It's a trade off.

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